IS there a curse on the Mercury Music Prize? Are its winners doomed? I ask in all seriousness in contemplating this year's shortlist, which was announced at a ceremony in London earlier in the week.
Curse or not, that the winners of the prize don't always flourish afterwards is a fact, and in 2001, Damon Alban's Gorillaz even removed themselves from the running because, in their own words, winning it would be "like carrying a dead albatross roun
d your neck for eternity".
And who can forget the loud sigh heard at the ceremony a few years back from Kaiser Chiefs' table, the band gasping with relief at having narrowly avoided the win, having been installed as bookies' favourites from the off?
Don't believe? Just ask previous winner Ms Dynamite. Or Talvin Singh. Or M People. These are just some of those whose careers have taken serious nose-dives after winning.
Last year, Klaxons won for their debut album Myths of the Near Future – not a peep out of them since.
Of course, Arctic Monkeys won the prize a couple of years back and, while they can hardly be said to have fallen by the wayside since, frontman Alex Turner's new side project The Last Shadow Puppets emerged this year.
Turner must be sick to his hind teeth saying his new outfit won't affect his full-time band, but how those other Monkeys must be sweating, especially after the LSP found themselves on the shortlist of 12 for this year's Mercury.
Could it be the curse of the prize slowly getting to work?
Time will tell, but one thing's for sure, The Last Shadow Puppets look shoe-ins to walk away with the £20,000 prize this year – not that they need the cash exactly.
With Portishead, Goldfrapp, Paul Weller and Coldplay all overlooked for the award, their strongest competition comes from the mighty Radiohead, whose pay-as-you-choose In Rainbows album could scoop this year's prize as much for the way it turned the music industry on its head as for its brilliance.
In Rainbows is one of Radiohead's best for a while, but do they really need Mercury recognition? Granted, that's like saying that Man United don't need to win stuff because everyone already knows they have a history and a pedigree etc, but it's better when the Mercury is used to give exposure to a relatively unknown artist.
Thankfully, there are a couple of wild cards.
Among them are Rachel Unthank & The Winterset, the Northumbrian all-girl folk quartet who dance down the leftfield and sing in their own lilting Geordie accents; and the utterly brilliant Portico Quartet, a four-piece modern jazz group from London, who sound like nothing you've ever heard before.
If any outsider is likely to ruffle the feathers of the big boys, though, it's Laura Marling.
An appetising bet for those looking to back an outsider, Marling's first album, Alas I Cannot Swim, is an exquisitely arranged collection of intricate chamber pop, made all the more remarkable considering that she wrote the songs on it aged just 17.
Amid all the debate concerning what makes a worthy winner, the likes of Marling would gain massively from the halo effect of being in the Mercury's spotlight, which will not only boost her album sales ten-fold, but help with the attendant radio and television coverage.
As for any curse, well, she can worry about that later.
The full article contains 583 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
